GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN RAISES NEW DEBT FEARS
  The global economy is expected to
  weaken this year, adding new worries to an already serious
  poverty outlook, economic analysts said.
      For finance ministers and central bankers attending this
  week's semi-annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund
  and World Bank, the new figures released by the IMF add an
  additional concern.
      The Fund estimated world output would only grow by 2.7 pct
  this year, versus 2.9 pct last year, and 3.1 pct in 1985.
      In the industrial countries, Gross National Product, a
  measure of all goods and services, was expected to decline to
  2.3 pct this year, compared with 2.4 pct in 1986, the IMF said.
      For the developing countries, the Gross Domestic Product,
  another measure of economic growth, was expected to fall to 3.0
  pct from 3.5 pct last year.
      The new figures are considered a major disappointment to
  the poorest countries. They had hoped that new vitality in the
  industrial countries brought on by a sharp decline in oil
  prices would assist their economic recovery and help them cope
  with growing mounds of debt.
      IMF officials, discussing their outlook, said they believed
  the industrial country economies would move up to an annual
  growth rate of three pct by the end of the decade.
      Economic analysts and the IMF have been saying for some
  time that the ability to keep the debt crisis from turning into
  an economic rout rests on sustained economic growth.
      Since the debtor countries must look to the wealthier
  states for markets for their products as well as financial
  assistance, economic weakness in the developed nations' 
  economies poses fundamental worries.
      Debtor countries, including the very poorest states, have
  only a few avenues open to them for earning foreign exchange,
  including the key one of exports.
      The U.S. economy, which is in its fifth year of expansion,
  has served as a mainstay for developing country exports, but it
  too is seen as being rather feeble this year, growing by only
  2.3 pct, according to the IMF.
      For this reason and because of a high trade deficit, the
  United States has been pressuring Japan and West Germany to
  ignite their economies but with little apparent success.
      The IMF study also examines the course of the dollar and
  the curious lack of impact it has had on the U.S. trade
  deficit.
      Reagan administration officials have been saying that the
  impact is now beginning to show up, although it has been much
  slower than expected.
      The IMF observed in its World Economic Outlook that "it has
  to be recognized that exchange rate adjustments take time to
  work through to payments flows -- probably at least three years
  to get a resonably complete effect."
      The report added, however, "the adjustments may take even
  more time on this occasion."
  REUTER^M
  

